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10-02-2003, 12:06 AM
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Ranger
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern VA
USDA Zone 7
Posts: 1,239
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Long Range Winter Forecast
Just wondering what you've read/heard predicted for the upcoming winter? Someone told me today that the worst winter in at least 50 years is predicted for the East Coast. Not sure what the source or science is for that claim.
Second question: Do you put much stock in the long range forecasts?
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10-02-2003, 01:46 AM
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Seedling
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Join Date: Apr 2003
USDA
Posts: 110
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The Farmer's Almanac is out & has predicted a similar winter to last year for the east Coast, so that may be what you've been hearing as far as hype so far? I haven't seen any of the real forecasters put out their winter seasonal forecasts yet.
http://www.millenniumweather.com/winter/season.html
This guy is one of the best for the North East. It's a little early yet for his season forecast for next season, as he is still doing his core work with the tropics now. Storm to storm he is generally the most accurate I've seen. His seasonal for 2002-3 said -5% - +5% deviance from normal for my area, yet we were 50% above normal, so that was a good inaccuracy IMO ;-)
Here is what NOAA says for early winter so far:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...olor/page2.gif
And here is what they are saying for the heart of winter so far:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off_index.html
They will put out an official winter season outlook, probably shortly. |
10-04-2003, 12:53 AM
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Acorn
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Join Date: May 2003
USDA
Posts: 26
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We have been at 50% of normal snowfall for two years now. It time to get back on track. Bring it on!
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As if I dont spend enough time online!!!
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10-04-2003, 12:00 PM
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B&B Tree
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: LaGrangeville, N.Y.
USDA Zone 5
Posts: 876
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If the current precipitation trend continues, we're in for a heck of a winter in the Northeast. We've been experiencing rain on average twice a week now, usually one is very heavy. If it's a cold winter, we'll be in for quite a challenge.
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10-04-2003, 12:03 PM
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Gold Oak Member
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Swain, NY
USDA Zone 5
Posts: 43
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Do I put stock into long range forcasts? Why when they have such a hard time with a 2 day forcast.
All forcasts I heard for last winter were "the return of El Nino, warm/wet blah blah blah. Coldest, snowiest in 20 years here.
This summer was to be hot and dry. Coldest wetest in 50 years.
I'm hopeing for a dry leaf clean up anyway.
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Axtell Landscape and Maintenance
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10-08-2003, 09:45 PM
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Acorn
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Join Date: Oct 2003
USDA
Posts: 3
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I wouldn't put stock into a 1 day forcast, they can't even get that right. But 20 years ago they were right on the button, with no computers. I hope it is a VERY VERY good winter this year for the northeast. Think since the space shuttle isn't going up every month, our weather is all mixed up. Wounder why?
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10-09-2003, 04:48 PM
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Sapling
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Join Date: Aug 2003
USDA
Posts: 241
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Lanelle, Pelican, and the rest of the North East,
if the weather does end up being as bad or worse than last year; maybe it can be turned into a positive. Might be a good idea to begin or start providing more winter services this year. I am just very thankful we were missed by that type of weather here. Best of wishes for you all. Tim
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Common sense, isn't all that common!
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10-09-2003, 05:35 PM
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Sapling
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Join Date: Aug 2003
USDA
Posts: 241
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For long range forecasts, I pay attention to what nature is doing. Are the squirrels more than extra plump this year? Did the birds fly South earlier than usual? What are the trees showing you?
Short term weather, did the grass have dew on it in the morning?
What was the color of the sky at sunset last night? Has the barometer moved significantly? Is there a front in the sky, or just lots of heavy clouds? Are the live stock all facing one direction?
Other than these, I only pay attention to the changing wind patterns. Weathermen... Bah, humbug!! Farmer's Almanac... my grandfather swore(a large farmer) by them. I am still undecided. I try to plan for the worst, and hope for the best. Tim
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Common sense, isn't all that common!
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10-09-2003, 05:49 PM
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B&B Tree
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: LaGrangeville, N.Y.
USDA Zone 5
Posts: 876
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Tim, we've got the winter services covered as long as it snows. What causes me trouble is sub-freezing temps with no snow, kind of brings everything to a halt.
I indirectly found out about this site through another that deals exclusively with winter services!  |
10-09-2003, 06:33 PM
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Sapling
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Join Date: Aug 2003
USDA
Posts: 241
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There is another thread just for this subject of Winter work.
S.H. If this needs moved, I understand.
Pelican, I was referred here too!
I have another idea for you. One thing some contractors do you might not have considered is starting up a Christmas Light Service. It's busy season just begins right when landscaping is pretty much wrapping up, and lasts till around Easter. A contractor told me about this from the East Coast. I guess there is even an actual franchise you can buy into where you hang, remove, sell, rent and store the lights for your clients. According to him, it's very profitable, and his workers appreciate not being laid off. Weather might not be such a controlling factor either.  Santa's favorite elf -  Tim
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Common sense, isn't all that common!
Last edited by Tim : 10-09-2003 at 06:35 PM.
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10-09-2003, 10:59 PM
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Seedling
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Join Date: Apr 2003
USDA
Posts: 110
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LOL Tim, we were talkin about the winter weather with a longing for lots of snow, cause we are plowing nuts. I do this hard labor in the summer to keep my winter customers, which is when I make the real money  Let it snow! |
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