[Mac]

With the warm weather in full swing, I curious to know how everyone's year is shaping up.

We begin our full maintenance routes next week, almost 2 weeks ahead of schedule. However, I have this nagging suspicion in the front of my mind that this year is going to be flat. Year to date, sales are stagnant. We have retained almost 95% of our clients/rev and have sold approximately 10% beyond that, all from current client enhancements. The phone isnt ringing like it was last spring and the proposals I have submitted are not being accepted or being postponed for later consideration. I have to wonder if there is something amiss in the current economic situation as I can not remember a time where I have seen so many homes on the market. Is anyone else experiencing the same situation or am I alone in my thoughts.

[agla]

No problems on my end yet, but I will warn all of you from someone working out of a civil engineering office, the view of the near future is not so good. We see the slow downs before any of you and at least in my area, there is one coming.

We are getting calls from the bigger site working companies and septic installers looking for work. Some of them have started some layoffs. Other engineers that I talk to are seeing a lot of slow down. It takes a while to get to the landscapers as they work the ends of jobs.The other bad thing is that most of those guys getting laid off have trucks, tools, and a lot of connections with the GC's.

I hope it is just a lull, but be carefull not to over extend. Its been 15 years since the last real slow down, so many of you have not experienced it (only the rumors of the worst economy in 50 years that was being put out in a construction boom a few years ago)

I don't want to be doom & gloom, but I saw a lot of people get creamed in '90 and '91because they did not react to it.

[mrusk]

Phone is not ringing off the hook. But this is the first nice week of the year.


Getting 12 inches of snow 2 weeks ago did not help anything.

The year is going to start off slow for me, but by May it will be rolling.

The leads really didn't start to come in at all until last week. And on large jobs, there is some time between first meeting with the customer and the first shovel in the ground. Won't be until may until i can start a big job.


So i am trying to drum up some small stuff to keep me and my guys busy for a month. Got a call for some walkways today. I need some calls for quick and easy stuff like that!

[Cochran]

My phone is ringing off the hook! Of course, our weather is averaging low 80's right now, so spring has "sprung" in our neck of the woods.

I haven't had time to compare my this year to my last year, but just rough estimating I've seen a 25-35% increase over this time last year and have work booked until mid-May with more calls/proposals/designs being made daily.

The area I am in is experiencing a large growth surge right now with new housing developments springing up as well as continued growth in existing housing developments. We've also booked a couple of landscape rennovation jobs in the mix.

In February, I did a direct mail to home builders and home owners (I created my own direct mail list by driving past houses and noting those that needed landscape) explaining our services and offerings. I've gotten an average of 2 new leads a day through this mailout!

[Fine Edge]

Busy, very busy. Have almost hit 1/2 of all our revenue from last year already.

I know exactly what agla was talking about - lived in NH during the early 90's and I too saw many construction companies get whacked. That's when I decided to move.

[GLAN]

Yup

Early 90's

Fall of Communism in Russia

Desert Storm came and went


Then slick Will........went and done us wrong by reducing our military by what half? or so. Defense contracts just about all wiped out for a few years.

I've talked about this at some length.......

[GLAN]

07 is looking good........


Thanks to a realignment between my ears last year.........Thanks to you all

Last year we were able to recoup from a downward trend.........and now for 07 it's only looking better.

Will update this thread as the season progresses........I hope you all will update as well

[prapoza]

We are busier then ever but we have to work harder for it too. Last year and this year have seen many revised proposals, phasing, down sizing hardscapes and plants but we are still doing more work then last year. We are looking at a 15% increase with profitable margins.
Years prior the question was "When can you start?" Now it's "How can we reduce our overall project price?" That's ok we just have to get out there and hustle a little more.

[Greensmith]

It's been about the norm so far. I have seen reluctance like others have mentioned for bigger ticket items. The essential stuff has been selling like hotcakes, but the second I try to upsell specimen plants or hardscaping I feel like I jumped into a glue trap.

[yardguy]

So far so good!! Not a great increase, but picked up a new maintenance contract for $2500.00 a month. So thats good. going to try my hand at landscaping a little later, but gotta make myself get off of here wen i get home, and study instead!! So we will see!!

[Malrex]

Things are going a little slow for me so far, but that's what I expected running my business the first year.

I do have two jobs right now that I'm designing and should be hitting very soon. One project I'm excited about because its a pond job and its at a store. The store use to be a house and has a decent backyard. The store does gift baskets and sells candles and alot of other stuff--sorta a lady's dream store. I'm hoping by building a nice pond, and having customers be able to see it, it might increase my business.

My ad should be hitting the paper in April so hopefully that will bring in more...regardless, I'm having fun learning about running a business and that's what is important to me (and no stress for keeping others busy as I'm a one man show).

[Malrex]

Things are picking up for me. Completed a landscape for a small store in the middle of a small town. Handed out a bunch of business cards and lined up 3 jobs from it. Alot of people commented how much they liked it and this has boosted my confidence. Have 3 other jobs in the works as well...6 jobs total! The good thing for me is 5 of those jobs are from strangers and not family members. 6 jobs doesn't sound like alot, but the size of them and being a one man operation, it will keep me busy for approximately 1.5 months or so. Hoping during that time I'll get some more. Also have gotten a few calls but are wishy washy, but still pretty exciting to receive them. Starting to analyze the two jobs I've completed and learning how I can improve in performance, bidding, and the business side of things.

Hope everyone is keeping busy and having fun!

[johnkeegan]

Everything seems OK from my own personal standpoint. It's still harder to find competant, dependable employees than it is to find work. But I, too, can sense a more apprehensive mood. Downscaling projects, shopping, delaying etc. And reason would dictate an even greater slowdown ahead. Oil prices, bankruptcies, foreclosures, budget deficits, retiring baby boomers that will soak up resources for health care, Social Security...

My guess is that the changing economy will effect the landscaping construction and maintenance firms differently. In the immediate time frame, construction will be only slightly effected by the housing down turn because many of the houses built in the past 5 years still need more landscaping. In a few years, the delayed effect may become more apparent.

The maintenance companies, however, should see a greater demand for their services because all these new (and existing) homes need the lawns mowed (why do so many people want so little woods and so much lawn?) and the beds mulched etc. And those homeowners are increasingly getter older and, more importantly, sedentary. All those expanding waistlines are not just from McDonalds. Physical exertion scares most people.

In general, though, I feel any reputable company will do just fine. And a little "thinning of the herd" is not such a bad thing. All these "fly-by-night" companies ruin the image of responsible, conscientioius landscape contractors. It seems as if half my calls are repairing the mistakes or finishing abandoned projects of these so-called "landscapers."

[agla]

In the last major slow down in New England ('89-'93 or so) the survivors of the recession included some lower end companies. The guys who got killed were the ones who were deep in financed equipment and property. It worked great to finance and make payments while the feast was on, but when business slows across the board, those guys could not sell off their financed stuff because there were no buyers. Repo man was busy.

If you believe we are going into a slow down as an industry, don't go into debt. There will be plenty of used stuff being dumped once it begins.

Also keep in mind that building and site work slow down before landscaping. Those guys have trucks and shovels and bills to pay and they are on the site already. Allow me to introduce your new competition - builders and site guys.

If those days are an indication, it goes from a slight slow down to an abrupt halt almost over night.

I'm not convinced that the crash is nearly here. But, I think it is a good idea to not put yourself into a bad position to deal with it , if possible.

[johnkeegan]

Just as there is distinction in how a slowing economy effects the design/build vs. the maintenance companies in landscaping, there is probably also a difference between the commercial and the residential landscape construction companies.
The "low-ballers" are perhaps more apt to survive a down turn in commercial work (as long as they still get paid) because quality is less of an issue than price (from my experience).
In residential, however, it's not just a "project," it's their home. Inevitably quality will matter more. At least for those that take pride in their property. Those that just want "something green across the front foundation," may just be price hunting like the GC's but there are plenty of people still interested in quality landscaping that will not tolerate the "fly-by-nighters." When the economy is booming and the quality landscapers have a long waiting list, many of those people grow impatient and hire the low-ballers, rather than wait. But when the economy cools, much of the backlog disappears and those good customers won't be forced to deal with the low-ballers.
....at lease this seems to be the flow of things in my area. And I greatly prefer to deal with a blank slate when designing/installing, rather than ripping out, replanting and rebuillding someone else's crappy designs and plant and hardscaping installations. And that inevitably means there's less money (and trust) in the landscaping construction budget because it's now being redone a second time.