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The amount of water that flows thru vertically a paver area is small compared to the amount that seeps under it from the sides. Think of your excavation as a bath tub. Now think of the bottom of the tub, if you can spread the load evenly over the bottom you'll have less problems. With a clay sub base thats not compacted but still hold lots of moisture, it will have tendencies to move. If you can support the load over it with a geogrid, which helps transfer the load over larger area you'll have LESS problems. NOTICE I didn't say you wouldn't eliminate the problem!
This is why I still think 12" of base is the minimum for a paver drive, and if I had my way I would install 15" to 24" of base material.
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